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Amid the immense confusion following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.