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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still