Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
